Australia’s ‘worst nightmare’ for Labor’s future: Senate poll

The Australian political scene has descended into a virtual war of attrition.

With less than three weeks to go until a crucial vote on the Senate vote on a mining and carbon tax, a new poll by The Australian has found the Government’s leadership prospects for the next four years have become all the more precarious.

Key points:The ABC’s Dan Kelly reports on the latest Newspoll and the Government has a 50 per cent chance of forming a minorityGovernment has a 48 per cent to be re-elected in 2020The poll found Labor has a 49 per cent likelihood of forming an official minorityGovernment had a 54 per cent majority at the time of the last poll in February, but has lost ground in recent weeksThe ABC asked respondents to rate the likelihood that they would vote for a party to form an official majority government in the Senate if they had to choose between Labor and the Greens.

The poll shows the Coalition is now a 52 per cent likely to win the next election, with the Greens, which have been making gains, at just 17 per cent.

The Greens have a 20 per cent lead over Labor in a four-way contest.

The results of the poll were taken from a telephone survey of 1,200 Australian adults from November 6 to November 14.

The survey was conducted by Ipsos Reid, a company that has been used extensively in Australia by political parties to conduct opinion polls.

The poll has a margin of error of 3.2 per cent, meaning that it has a 95 per cent confidence level.

It also found that the Coalition had a 52 to 48 per.cent chance of winning the Senate, with Labor on 48 per and the Liberal-National Coalition on 24 per cent; the Greens on 11 per cent and the Nationals on 6 per cent each.

The Government has an 49 to 47 per cent shot at forming an officially-minority government in 2019.

Labor has a 54 to 46 per cent share of the vote.

“It is not just the Greens who have made gains.

They have been the best at taking on the Government, but they have been able to do so because the Coalition has lost the support of most voters,” Ipsos said.

In the same poll, the ABC asked people to rate their confidence in the Government in the run up to the vote, and found Labor had a 56 per cent approval rating and the Coalition on 32 per cent with Labor having a 48 to 41 per cent rating.

The latest Newspolls shows the Government is on 49 per.

The Australian political scene has descended into a virtual war of attrition.With less than three weeks to go until a…

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